For the majority of brands, we'd suggest using the Smart Model for the most accurate predictions.
How is your Smart Model calculated?
Your Total Sales for 12 months.
On selecting this option you will be asked for a 12-month sales or growth prediction upon which the plan is ultimately based.
The growth expectation is not coming from Prediko but from you - so you need to make sure the growth expectation is kept up to date.
You can check it also on your Plan here.
2. Trend.
How many months do we take into account when looking for the most recent trends to create an initial plan.
The shorter the period, the more we take into account recent trends.
We look if the product / SKU has been increasing, decreasing, or stable during that period.
3. Seasonality.
If we spot any seasonal trends across store, category or SKU these will be taken into account when creating a Plan. Seasonality is calculated if see SKU or similar SKUs experiencing distinct trends over a specific time in a year, for more than 2 years.
Other parameters taken into account:
Option popularity
If SKUs with certain options are more popular - we expect them to sell more
Black Friday
Seasonal sales increase
Launch Effect
When an item is just launched it may behave differently to stable products - we take it into account
Cannibalisation
Whether sales of one product impact others in the category
What are the differences between Simple and Smart Model?
| Simple Model | Smart Model |
Can Edit? | ❌ | ✅ |
Automatically Updated? | ✅ daily | ❌ no, but can "Re-plan" via Bulk manually |
Seasonality included? | ❌ | ✅ |
AI generated? | ❌ | ✅ |
What brands should be on a Simple vs Smart Model?
Simple Model is best suited for brands, that:
🔵 New brands
🔵 Sales are prone to "Spikes" and frequent changes
🔵 Don't want to Edit Plan
Smart Model is best suited for brands, that:
🟣 Have seasonality
🟣 Have >3-6 months of Sales
🟣 Plan proactively
FAQ
How often you refresh the Smart Model?
Based on your "Type of refresh" Setting.
How do you edit your Smart Model?
Do you take a discounted price for the calculation of the plan?
Yes, we take the average actual selling price when calculating the Sales.
We base the sales on = gross (minus) discount* (minus) the returns
*We take the average of the actual selling price over time. So if the usual price is $7.99 yet you have actually been selling for $5.99 for an extended period of time, the price that we will use to compute will be $5.99. But if you discounted for only a short period, it would be an average between $7.99 and $5.99.
Do sales projections take into account the return levels?
Yes we look at the historical sales and deduct the returns. We then base the projections on those historical numbers.
E.g. you have an SKU that you have been selling for $5.99 (deducted price from $7.99), and the discount has been in place for a year. You sell 1000 units per month but returns are 200.
We assume that the true velocity of sales 1000-200 = 800 units per month at a $5.99 price.
Can I go back from Smart to a Simple Model?
Click on the "Configure Plan" button on your Demand Plan.
